Supply-Demand Imbalance: Analysis of Calcined Coke Market Trends [SMM Aluminum Industry Conference]

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo—Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Wang Zuoyou, General Manager of Jining Jitan Import & Export Co., Ltd., shared insights on the supply-demand imbalance and the market trends of calcined petroleum coke with the attendees.

**Calcined Petroleum Coke Supply and Demand Analysis**

**Global Calcined Petroleum Coke Capacity**
In 2024, global new calcined petroleum coke capacity is expected to reach 1.54 million mt, up 2.7% YoY. In 2025, global new capacity is projected to be around 3.1 million mt. China’s planned new calcined petroleum coke projects total 5.275 million mt in capacity. Global calcined petroleum coke production in 2024 is expected to increase by 1.87 million mt, up 5% YoY.

**Global Aluminum Industry Demand for Calcined Petroleum Coke**
In 2024, the consumption of calcined petroleum coke for aluminum production is estimated at 30.09 million mt, an increase of 770,000 mt YoY.

**Global Demand for Calcined Petroleum Coke in Anode Materials**
The consumption of calcined petroleum coke in 2023-2024 and the demand forecast for 2025 were discussed.

**China’s Demand for Calcined Petroleum Coke in Graphite Electrodes**
In 2024, China’s consumption of calcined petroleum coke for graphite electrodes is expected to be around 270,000 mt, up 3.8% YoY.

**Summary**
In 2024, global calcined petroleum coke supply is slightly surplus, with low capacity utilization. According to relevant institutions, China’s supply surplus is about 280,000 mt. Both China and overseas markets are adding new capacity, especially China. The oversupply situation may worsen in 2025. With the resumption of aluminum production overseas (South America and Europe) and new capacity coming online (Southeast Asia), as well as increased aluminum production in China, global demand for calcined petroleum coke will continue to grow in 2025, but the increase will be relatively small. The growth in anode material production (especially the significant future potential for energy storage anode materials) will further increase the proportion of artificial graphite anode materials, and the demand for calcined petroleum coke in anode materials is expected to continue rising in 2025. In the graphite electrode sector, as the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking increases, the usage of high-power graphite electrodes (all using needle coke) will rise, leading to increased demand for needle coke but potentially reduced demand for calcined petroleum coke.

**China’s Calcined Petroleum Coke Exports**
**Changes in Aluminum-Grade Calcined Petroleum Coke Exports in 2023 & 2024**
In 2024, exports increased by 130,000 mt compared to 2023, with the increase coming from Indonesia, Bahrain, Russia, and Australia, while India saw a significant decrease.

**Calcined Petroleum Coke Market Trends**
**China’s Petroleum Coke Imports**
**Total Petroleum Coke Imports:** In 2024, China’s petroleum coke imports are expected to be around 13.39 million mt, down 1.6% YoY.
**S>3% Petroleum Coke Imports:** Approximately 9.53 million mt, down 20% YoY.
**S<3% Petroleum Coke Imports:** Around 3.86 million mt, down 6.4% YoY.
**Low-Sulphur Petroleum Coke Imports:** Brazil decreased by 41%, Argentina increased by 6.4%, Azerbaijan decreased by 69%, and Indonesia decreased by 9.6%.
**Impact of US Reciprocal Tariffs on Petroleum Coke Imports:** From 2021 to 2024, the proportion of US petroleum coke imports in China’s total petroleum coke imports declined from 47% to 29%. After the reciprocal tariffs take effect, US imports are expected to drop sharply. China’s imports from the US mainly consist of high-sulphur sponge coke and low, medium, and high-sulphur pellet coke, so the impact on domestic carbon-grade petroleum coke is limited. US petroleum coke is highly substitutable, such as petroleum coke from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Additionally, fuel-grade petroleum coke competes with coal, natural gas, and heavy oil, and with the current downturn in the coal market, the medium and long-term impact on fuel-grade petroleum coke is also limited.
**China’s Petroleum Coke Port Inventory:** In 2025, port inventory is expected to fluctuate between 2.5-3.5 million mt.
**China’s Petroleum Coke Market Trends:** The start of 2025 resembles 2022, but history will not repeat itself.
**China’s Calcined Petroleum Coke Market Trends:** Q1 2025 will see a small peak, Q2 is expected to oscillate at high levels, and Q3 may show a downward trend.
**China’s Aluminum-Grade Calcined Petroleum Coke Export Market Trends:** Export prices will start to rise in Q1 2025, peaking in March, with Q2 expected to oscillate and show a downward trend.
**Summary:** In 2025, high-sulphur petroleum coke imports are expected to decline further, especially fuel-grade coke, while low-sulphur coke may increase. With the gradual release of new calcined petroleum coke capacity overseas, such as in India, Oman, and Brazil, demand for low-sulphur coke will increase, potentially raising China’s import costs for low-sulphur coke. Some new calcined petroleum coke projects will come online in 2025, increasing supply, but downstream demand growth will be limited, especially for anode materials, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance. The competition in the calcined petroleum coke market will become more pronounced in H2 2025, and the industry may face a reshuffle in the next 1-2 years.

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